ACCURATELY PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS OFTEN A MAJOR INGREDIENT OF COMMERCIAL SUCCESS AND THERE ARE NOW SOME SPECIALISTS WHO PROVIDE THOSE FORECASTS IN THE BUSINESS WORLD.JIM TAYLOR AND WATTS WACKER WOULD BOTH BE DESCRIBED AS "FUTURISTS" -- PEOPLE WHOSE JOB IT IS TO STUDY ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND CULTURAL TRENDS AND ATTEMPT TO FORECAST WHERE THEY WILL LEAD. A GROWING NUMBER OF AMERICAN BUSINESS LEADERS ARE CONSULTING "FUTURISTS" IN AN EFFORT TO BETTER ANTICIPATE WHAT FORCES WILL CHANGE THEIR BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT.
MR. TAYLOR AND MR. WACKER DESCRIBE MUCH OF THEIR PHILOSOPHY IN A NEW BOOK TITLED "THE 500-YEAR DELTA," WHICH IS BASED ON THE THEORY THAT MAJOR CHANGES COME EVERY 500 YEARS. MR. WACKER SAYS, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT CONSUMERS ARE BECOMING VERY SOPHISTICATED. AS A RESULT, HE BELIEVES THAT, IN THE FUTURE, A COMPANY'S REPUTATION FOR INTEGRITY WILL BE OF MAJOR IMPORTANCE TO ITS CUSTOMERS, ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COMPETING PRODUCTS AND SERVICES.
CAN YOU REALLY TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AMENITIES, THE SERVICE AND THE LOCATION BETWEEN TWO MAJOR HOTEL CHAINS? THEY ARE PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. BUT THE VALUES OF THE TWO HOTEL CHAINS CAN DEFINITELY DRIVE THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO.
MR. WACKER SAYS GENERAL MOTOR'S "SATURN" AUTO SUBSIDIARY IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF A VALUE DRIVEN COMPANY. HE SAYS SATURN'S IMAGE OF INTEGRITY AND RESPECT FOR CUSTOMERS IS PERHAPS A MORE POWERFUL SALES TOOL THAN THE CAR ITSELF.
JIM TAYLOR BELIEVES THAT IN THE FUTURE COMPANIES THAT SURVIVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MASS-MARKET PSYCHOLOGY.
YOU WILL HAVE TO DESIGN TO THE SPECIFIC NEEDS OF INDIVIDUAL CONSUMERS. CUSTOM BEATS STANDARD 100 PERCENT, EVEN THOUGH THE RANGE OF VARIATIONS MAY BE NARROW. YOU HAVE TO TALK TO CONSUMERS IN SUCH A WAY TO GIVE THEM THE SENSE THAT THEY ARE IN CHARGE OF THE RELATIONSHIP, HOWEVER THE RELATIONSHIP MANIFESTS ITSELF.
THE "FUTURISTS" SAY THAT ALTHOUGH MOST AMERICAN CORPORATE LEADERS SAY THEY UNDERSTAND THE NECESSITY OF CONSTANT CHANGE, FEW ACTUALLY PRACTICE IT. THEY HAVE STUDIED COMPANIES, WHICH HAVE BEEN IN BUSINESS FOR 100 YEARS OR LONGER AND MR. WACKER SAYS THE ONE CONSTANT WITH ALL OF THEM HAS BEEN THEIR ABILITY TO CHANGE.
WE FOUND THAT, WITH ALL THESE COMPANIES, THE KEY DETERMINANT, ONE OF THE FEW THINGS THEY HAD IN COMMON, IS THAT NONE OF THEM MADE THEIR PRINCIPAL SOURCE OF REVENUE ANYMORE FROM THE SAME BUSINESS THEY WERE CREATED FOR IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE ONLY AMERICAN COMPANY THAT WILL START THE 21ST CENTURY ON THE "FORTUNE" (MAGAZINE) LIST OF THE 100 LARGEST COMPANIES THAT WAS ON THE LIST 100 YEARS AGO IS GENERAL ELECTRIC. TODAY, G-E MAKES 42 PERCENT OF THEIR REVENUE FROM FINANCIAL SERVICES. THEIR SECOND BIGGEST SOURCE OF REVENUE IS FROM JET ENGINES.
JIM TAYLOR SAYS BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS MUST FIRST CHANGE INTERNALLY IF THEY EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE CHANGES IN THE MARKET.
THE WHOLE THEORY OF HIERARCHICAL BUREAUCRACY WAS BASED ON THE NOTION THAT YOU HAVE A STRING OF SUPERVISORY RELATIONSHIPS IN WHICH A MESSAGE COULD BE PASSED DOWN AND REFINED FOR EACH UNIT. BUT SINCE YOU CAN NO LONGER TELL WHICH UNITS NEED TO COME INTO CONTACT WITH EACH OTHER, THE OLD RULES DO NOT WORK. WHAT YOU NEED TO DO IS GET RID OF MOST OF YOUR SUPERVISORS AND ESTABLISH A CODE OF ETHICS AND VALUES FOR THE BUSINESS THAT ARE ABSOLUTE IN THEIR MANDATE AND FOCUS ON A GOAL.
WITH EVER INCREASING ADVANCES IN TECHNOLOGY, FUTURISTS SUCH AS WATTS WACKER AND JIM TAYLOR BELIEVE BUSINESSES MUST LEARN TO QUICKLY ADAPT TO CHANGE, CHANGE WHICH IS NOT ONLY RAPID BUT OFTEN UNFORESEEABLE.
09-May-97
Source: Voice of America