A LEADING U-S DEMOGRAPHER SAYS RUSSIA WILL LOSE UP TO 25 
MILLION PEOPLE DURING THE NEXT THREE DECADES, IF CURRENT 
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS CONTINUE. CARL HAUB OF THE WASHINGTON-BASED 
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU CAME TO THIS CONCLUSION IN A RECENTLY
FINISHED STUDY. 

MR. HAUB FINISHED HIS STUDY AS THE WORLD HEALTH 
ORGANIZATION CONFIRMED THAT LIFE EXPECTANCY FOR RUSSIAN MEN 
REMAINS AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN ALMOST TWO DECADES. IT SLIGHTLY 
EXCEEDS 57 YEARS.  

MR. HAUB SAYS THAT COMBINED WITH A VERY LOW BIRTH RATE, EQUALING 
LAST YEAR ONLY NINE NEWBORNS PER ONE THOUSAND POPULATION, SETS 
RUSSIA UP FOR A VERY STEEP DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE. 

         THE RUSSIAN POPULATION TODAY IS ABOUT 148 MILLION AND IS
         DECLINING VERY, VERY SLOWLY. BY THE YEAR 2030, IT WOULD
         DECLINE TO 123 MILLION, AND AFTER THAT THE DECREASE 
         WOULD BE EVEN FASTER. SO, WHAT WE ARE REALLY LOOKING AT
         WOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE POPULATION SIZE THAT WOULD BE
         VERY VERY DIFFICULT TO TURN AROUND. 

MR. HAUB SAYS RUSSIA, THE SIXTH MOST POPULOUS COUNTRY IN THE 
WORLD TODAY, WILL BE PUSHED TO SEVENTH PLACE BY PAKISTAN IN ABOUT
THREE YEARS.  

HE BLAMED THE LOW BIRTH RATE, IN PART, ON A LOSS OF FAITH IN THE 
COUNTRY'S FUTURE AMONG RUSSIA'S YOUNG COUPLES. AS FOR THE HIGH 
DEATH RATE AMONG RUSSIAN MALES, WHICH NOW EQUALS THAT OF 
WAR-RAVAGED LIBERIA, MR. HAUB ATTRIBUTED IT TO CARDIOVASCULAR 
DISEASES, INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS AND ALCOHOLISM. 

MR. HAUB WARNED THAT THE CURRENT POPULATION DECLINE WILL SOON 
HAVE FAR REACHING SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS IN RUSSIA. 

         FIRST, IT (THE POPULATION) WOULD BE AGING.  ALMOST 
         ONE-THIRD OF THE POPULATION OF RUSSIA WOULD BE RETIRED 
         AGES, WOULD BE PEOPLE WHO ARE DEPENDENT UPON PENSIONS.  
         ANOTHER IMPORTANT EFFECT OF SUCH A LOW BIRTH RATE IS THE
         VERY SMALL NUMBER OF YOUNGER PEOPLE, WHO ARE COMING INTO
         THE LABOR FORCE, AGES -- AND THE FAMILY FORMATION AGES 
         EACH YEAR. HOUSING NEEDS WOULD DECLINE. AND THIS IS 
         NEVER GOOD FOR AN ECONOMY. 

MR. HAUB PREDICTED BANKRUPTCY FOR RUSSIA'S PENSION FUNDS IF THE 
CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ARE NOT  REVERSED SOON. HE SAYS THE 
CRISIS IS LIKELY TO FORCE RUSSIAN LEADERS TO RAISE THE RETIREMENT
AGE.  

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