By GENARO C. ARMAS
Africa's population could soar by
more than 1 billion over the next half-century,
further straining food and water supplies and social services in areas already
struggling, according to a report Tuesday.
Political unrest and war have limited the ability of many
developing nations to promote family planning and literacy programs, said Carl Haub, author of the study released Tuesday from the
Population Reference Bureau, a private research group.
In many of these countries, big families are the cultural
norm. African governments, especially those of sub-Saharan nations, will need
to create millions of jobs and improve health care facilities and schools, the
report said.
"Africa is going to have a hard
time taking on another 1 billion people," Haub
said. "How do you raise living standards, how do you educate, improve
health care, and how do you battle AIDS at the same time?"
The latest edition of the "World Population Data
Sheet" estimates the global population will rise 46 percent between now
and 2050 to about 9 billion, a level also predicted by the United Nations and
other groups.
European nations, more industrialized and prosperous, are
expected to lose population because of falling birth rates and low immigration.
The U.S.
population is expected to grow 45 percent to 422 million in 2050, paced by a
stable birth rate and high levels of immigration.
But most of the world's growth will be in developing
nations. India's
population is estimated to grow 52 percent to 1.6 billion by 2050, when it will
surpass China
as the world's largest country.
The population in neighboring Pakistan
will grow to 349 million, up 134 percent in 2050. Triple-digit growth rates
also are forecast for Iraq,
Afghanistan and
Nepal.
Africa is supposed to more than
double in population to 1.9 billion by midcentury.
The population in Congo,
which has been torn by civil war, could more than triple during the same period
to 181 million. And Africa's most populous country, Nigeria,
could more than double to 307 million.
"The governments don't have the wherewithal to fund the
(family planning) programs. And any family planning program is interrupted by
political strife," Haub said.
Growth in Africa comes despite the
world's highest rates of HIV and AIDS infection.
The epidemic is worst in Botswana,
where nearly 2 of 5 residents ages 15 to 49 are infected. The country's
population is expected to decline 43 percent by 2050 to just under 1 million.
Meanwhile, extreme poverty and environmental devastation
have left billions of people without adequate food or water, the United Nations
said in a report last year.
That report found that global water use had increased sixfold over the last century, at twice the rate of
population growth. Inefficient agricultural systems were the greatest drain on
the world's freshwater supplies.
Food consumption was expected to increase although the
capacity to produce enough food was diminishing, especially in developing
countries, the U.N. report found.
With demands likely to grow, African governments and relief
organizations must place increased emphasis on agricultural programs and proper
land-use policies, said Polly Erickson, who works on agricultural development
programs for Catholic Relief Services.
"The problem isn't too many people. It's the lack of
solid socioeconomic development policies," said Scott Weinberg, director
of governmental affairs for the Population Research Institute, which opposes population
controls as a way to curb growth.
The United States
is among the few industrialized nations growing, while Europe's
population is expected to decrease 9 percent to 664 million.
A study in the journal Science last year said European
countries reached a turning point in 2000, when the number of children there
dropped to a level that statistically ensured there will be fewer parents in
the next generation than in the current one.
An increasing focus among women on education and career and
away from child-rearing roles played a major factor in the projected decline,
researchers have said.
7/22/03
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