AN ANNUAL WORLD POPULATION STUDY INDICATES POPULATION WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES THE NEXT 30 YEARS IF CURRENT GROWTH RATES CONTINUE, BUT EXPAND DRAMATICALLY IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES OF AFRICA AND ASIA. THE STUDY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE ECONOMIES AND LIFESTYLES IN BOTH THE RICHER AND POORER COUNTRIES.THE POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU HAS BEEN DOING DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES FOR NEARLY 70 YEARS. THE PRIVATE U-S ORGANIZATION'S GOAL IS TO ALERT POLICY MAKERS AND OTHERS AROUND THE WORLD TO POPULATION TRENDS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS.
CARL HAUB, CO-AUTHOR OF THIS YEAR'S ANNUAL STUDY, SAYS BIRTH RATES HAVE NEVER BEEN AS LOW AS THEY ARE NOW IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES. HE SAYS THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO IN WESTERN EUROPE ALTHOUGH JAPAN IS DOWN TO ABOUT ONE AND ONE-HALF BIRTHS PER WOMEN OF CHILD-BEARING AGE.
IN SPAIN AND ITALY, THE BIRTH RATE IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE PER CHILD-BEARING WOMAN. DEMOGRAPHER HAUB SAYS THAT SUGGESTS A POPULATION WITHIN 20 YEARS OR SO THAT IS VERY TOP HEAVY WITH ELDERLY RESIDENTS.
I THINK EUROPE FACES A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO HOUSING VALUES THROUGHOUT EUROPE AS ONLY HALF AS MANY YOUNG PEOPLE COME UP THE AGE LADDER AND THOSE PEOPLE ARE RELATIVELY SLOW TO FORM FAMILIES -- THAT'S ONE THING. CERTAINLY EUROPE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AFFORD THE FAIRLY GENEROUS PENSION PROGRAMS THAT THEY NOW HAVE. EVERYBODY KNOWS IT, BUT NOBODY WANTS TO BE THE FIRST ONE TO GIVE UP THEIR PENSION.
FURTHERMORE, HE SAYS THE INDUSTRIAL NATION ECONOMIES WILL HAVE TO ADAPT TO A VASTLY DIFFERENT MARKET OUTLOOK. WITH MOST CONSUMERS BEING ELDERLY, FASHIONS, FOOD, HOUSING -- EVEN VACATION PLANS -- WILL BE AIMED INCREASINGLY AT THE OLDER MARKET.
MR. HAUB SAYS POPULATION LEVELS IN MUCH OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION ARE ON A SHARP DECLINE, AND RUSSIA WILL DROP FOUR PLACES TO 10TH ON THE LIST OF THE WORLD'S MOST POPULOUS COUNTRIES BY THE YEAR 2025.
AFTER THE BREAKUP OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION, THE BOTTOM FELL OUT OF THE BIRTH RATE QUITE LITERALLY...AND THE OBVIOUS IS TRUE. EVERY ONE LOST THEIR JOB, THEY'RE NOT GETTING PAID, AND THAT RATHER SECURE EXISTENCE THAT PEOPLE HAD IN THE OLD SOVIET UNION -- IT MAY BE (HAVE BEEN) MEAGER BY WESTERN STANDARDS BUT IT WAS STILL SECURE AND NOW IT'S MEAGER AND IT'S NOT SECURE.
AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THE TREND LINE ARE PARTS OF ASIA AND AFRICA, WHERE BIRTH RATES FOR MANY COUNTRIES ARE AT SIX PER CHILD-BEARING WOMAN.
WITH ONE AND A QUARTER BILLION PEOPLE, CHINA IS THE WORLD'S MOST POPULOUS COUNTRY. BUT MR. HAUB SAYS INDIA HAS NEARLY A BILLION AND IS CLOSING THE GAP.
CHINA HAS HAD A VERY STRINGENT NATIONAL POLICY TO ENCOURAGE A LOW BIRTH RATE AND THAT'S BEEN SUCCESSFUL. IN FACT, THE BIRTH RATE IN CHINA IS NOW A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN IT IS IN THE UNITED STATES. IN INDIA, HOWEVER, IT IS STILL MODESTLY HIGH. WOMEN IN INDIA NOW AVERAGE ABOUT THREE AND A HALF CHILDREN EACH.
HE SAYS INDIA'S BIRTH RATE IS ABOUT THREE TIMES HIGHER THAN CHINA'S. UNLESS CHANGED, THAT MEANS CHINA WILL HAVE 1-POINT-5 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2025 AND INDIA WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND AT 1-POINT-4 BILLION. THE UNITED STATES, WITH A BIRTH RATE AROUND TWO PER WOMAN, WILL REMAIN IN THIRD PLACE, AT 335 MILLION.
THE POPULATION IN AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO SOAR. MR. HAUB PROJECTS NIGERIA'S POPULATION WILL MORE THAN DOUBLE BY 2025, PUTTING THE AFRICAN COUNTRY INTO SIXTH PLACE OVER ALL, JUST BEHIND PAKISTAN AND INDONESIA.
HE SAYS THE PREDICTIONS OF ONLY A FEW YEARS AGO THAT THE AIDS EPIDEMIC WOULD CUT AFRICAN POPULATION IN HALF WERE GROSSLY EXAGGERATED, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MAJOR IMPACT.
IT CERTAINLY IS GOING TO BE NOWHERE NEAR THAT BAD. BETWEEN NOW AND THE YEAR 2025, IT MIGHT REDUCE AFRICA'S POPULATION BY 100 MILLION OR MORE -- A DEDUCTION OF SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 10 PER CENT. HOWEVER, IN CERTAIN INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES THE EFFECT IS GOING TO BE MUCH MORE DRAMATIC, AT LEAST THAT'S HOW IT LOOKS NOW, PARTICULARLY COUNTRIES SUCH AS KENYA, SOUTH AFRICA, ZIMBABWE. IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE BUT OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS THEY MIGHT EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POPULATION DECLINE.
FOR THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, HE SAYS CONTINUED POPULATION GROWTH WILL PRESENT THE SERIOUS CHALLENGE OF EXPANDING THE JOB MARKET AND ECONOMY WITHOUT RUINING THE ENVIRONMENT.
THAT 'S A VERY EXPENSIVE PROCESS TO TRY TO DEVELOP WHILE TAKING CARE OF THE ENVIRONMENT. AND I THINK ANYONE WHO'S SEEN THE WATER AND AIR POLLUTION AROUND THE INDIAN CITIES KNOWS THAT FOR SURE.
DEMOGRAPHER CARL HAUB EMPHASIZES THAT HIS ORGANIZATION'S POPULATION GROWTH FIGURES ARE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. HE SAYS IF PEOPLE IN HIGH-GROWTH COUNTRIES WOULD DECIDE TO HAVE SMALLER FAMILIES, SAY TWO OR THREE CHILDREN INSTEAD OF FIVE OR SIX, THE IMPACT WOULD BE TO REDUCE GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH BY HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS IN JUST A GENERATION.
13-May-97
Source: Voice of America