New Fertility Declines in Sub-Saharan Africa
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New Fertility Declines in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-central Asia
According to the 1994 Revision of the official United Nations world
population estimates and projections, a fertility transition has begun in a
number of sub-Saharan African and South-central Asian countries, where
fertility levels had for decades remained very high and constant. New
demographic surveys and censuses have uncovered recent fertility declines
which were previously unknown.
Survey and census data from these countries are often of poor quality
so findings for some of these countries may be revised in years to come.
Nevertheless, the relatively large number of countries exhibiting fertility
declines, and simultaneous evidence of rises in contraceptive use and ages
at which couples marry, lend credence to the results.
The United Nations 1994 Revision documents fertility declines in such
countries as Madagascar (where average fertility has fallen from 6.6
children per woman in 1980-1985 to 6.1 currently), Rwanda (from 8.1 to
6.5), United Republic of Tanzania (from 6.7 to 5.9), Namibia (from 5.8 to
5.3), South Africa (from 4.8 to 4.1) and Mauritania (from 6.1 to 5.4). New
data also reveal fertility to be declining faster than previously envisioned
in Zambia, Zimbabwe and Gambia. In conjunction with countries such as
Kenya and Botswana, where fertility declines have been previously
documented, evidence is growing that a broad-based fertility decline may
have begun in sub-Saharan Africa.
The 1994 Revision shows continued fertility declines in South-central
Asia as well. New data indicate that a rapid fertility transition is
occurring in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where fertility is estimated to
have declined from 6.8 children per woman in 1980-1985 to 5.0 currently.
Past fertility declines are also continuing in Bangladesh (from 6.2 children
per woman in 1980-1985 to 4.4), India (from 4.5 to 3.7) and Nepal (from 6.3
to 5.4).
Significant increase in contraceptive prevalence has played a major role.
For example, among African countries, the use of contraception rose in
Kenya (from 7 per cent of couples in 1977-1978 to 33 per cent in 1993),
Rwanda (from 10 per cent in 1983 to 21 per cent in 1992), Zimbabwe (from
38 per cent in 1984 to 43 in 1988-1989), Botswana (from 28 per cent in 1984
to 33 in 1988), and South Africa (from 37 per cent in 1975-1976 to 50 in
1988). In South-central Asia, contraceptive use has risen in Bangladesh
(from 19 per cent in 1981 to 40 in 1991), India (from 34 per cent in 1980
to 43 in 1988), Nepal (from 14 per cent in 1986 to 23 in 1991) and Iran
(from 36 per cent in 1977 to 65 in 1992).
Yet in other countries, contraceptive use remains low but evidence
exists that girls are waiting until they are older before marrying. In the
United Republic of Tanzania, for example, current use of contraception is
low (10 per cent in 1991-1992), but female age at marriage rose from 19
years in 1978 to 21 years in 1988. Rwandan data reveal both a high female
age at marriage (21 years in 1983) and increasing use of contraception.
In societies where most childbearing takes place within marriage, such
delays in age at marriage can contribute significantly to reducing the level
of fertility.
One cannot yet extrapolate these findings to all of sub-Saharan Africa
and South-central Asia. Some of the larger countries of these regions --
for example, Nigeria, Zaire, Ethiopia and Pakistan -- are not yet exhibiting
such declines. In addition, the number of children that women desire, and
are having, in many of these countries remains high. However, what is
certain is that sub-Saharan Africa no longer presents a picture of
monolithically high and unchanging fertility levels, as was the case only
a few years ago.
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ABSTRACTS OF WORKING PAPERS IN DEMOGRAPHY, RSSS, ANU
Copies of the papers can be obtained from: The Publications
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TITLE: No.42 - Recent Fertility Trends in Industrialized Countries:
The End of the Decline?
Lincoln H. Day
ABSTRACT
By the mid-1980s, fertility had declined to unprecedentedly low levels
in nearly every "developed" country in the world. In the brief period
since, it has continued to decline in some of these countries, risen
slightly in others, and fluctuated in still others.
Although neither increases, decreases, nor fluctuations can be ruled
out, it is argued here that the most likely future fertility course in
developed countries will consist of gradual increases to replacement
level and minor fluctuations thereafter.
The prediction of fertility increases is supported by an assessment of
the childbearing implications of a variety of conditions, ranging from
the anticipated rewards people associate with having children to the
interests perceived to be served by participation in the labour force.
The prediction that these increases will not proceed mach beyond
replacement level is based on a comparable assessment of another set of
conditions, ranging from changes in attitudes and tastes to the
availability of contraception and abortion.
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end of record.